On being wrong about AI
effective-altruism-is-not-effective.html?m=1
Hello ambiguity!

What the Hell is Going On? — David Perell

The Role of Luck in Life is Still Misunderstood · Joshua Balloch
The Odds of That

What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes

Bayes's Theorem

Hesitate!
The Benefits of Getting Comfortable With Uncertainty

A former Google exec on how to make tough decisions quickly

What does randomness look like?
How to choose?