The '3.5% rule': How a small minority can change the world

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
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The '3.5% rule': How a small minority can change the world

Research by political scientist Erica Chenoweth indicates that nonviolent campaigns are significantly more effective than violent ones in achieving political change, succeeding in 53% of cases compared to 26% for violent protests. Her findings reveal a "3.5% rule," stating that nonviolent movements that engage at least 3.5% of the population have historically never failed to bring about serious change. This success is attributed to the ability of nonviolent movements to attract broader participation, maintain moral high ground, and secure support from diverse demographics, including security forces, leading to widespread societal disruption.

Note

it is difficult to believe this was true. it is even more difficult to believe this remains true.

and yet, when in a sizeable crowd, hope burns strong.

i wonder if movements could start taking this to heart. i feel a lot of movements don't have clear goals. i go to some protests and i see funny protestors, but the asks for change tantemount to hundreds of major political battles.

but perhaps a movement focused on motivating a number to disrupt and bring about change might be focus enough?

Published

2019

Summary

Research by political scientist Erica Chenoweth indicates that nonviolent campaigns are significantly more effective than violent ones in achieving political change, succeeding in 53% of cases compared to 26% for violent protests. Her findings reveal a "3.5% rule," stating that nonviolent movements that engage at least 3.5% of the population have historically never failed to bring about serious change. This success is attributed to the ability of nonviolent movements to attract broader participation, maintain moral high ground, and secure support from diverse demographics, including security forces, leading to widespread societal disruption.

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