A bold prediction for 2030 by the founder of Anthropic.

it is incredibly important for visionaries and leaders to put themselves out on the world stage and to make specific prognostications.

selling fortunes and hand wavy statements that can never be pinned down make learning impossible and allow the powerful to stay in power.

that being said, his predictions aren't THAT specific. but while there is a fair bit of cloudiness, i do think there is enough concreteness that in 2030 it will be clear if this essay was right or not.

one challenge though is that it's unclear where Dario's prediction ends and their vision begins. they seem to be one and the same.

there are going to be a lot of unknown unknows here and we likely are all going to be in for some surprises. i just hope those surprises are welcome.

one piece that i feel is missing is a roadmap for how do we get from where we are now to this prediction? the essay reads as if we only need iterative evolutions with what exists today as opposed to a large breakthrough on the order of something like Deep Learning.

time will tell.