If You Tax Them, Will They Leave?

https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/01/california-wealth-tax-billionaire-migration/685779/
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If You Tax Them, Will They Leave?

The article discusses California's proposed one-off 5 percent wealth tax on its richest residents. Proponents, including economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, argue it's a fair way to address a $20 billion health-care budget shortfall, as billionaires pay very little in income taxes. Opponents, like Garry Tan and David Sacks, warn of significant capital flight, threatening the state's tech industry and long-term tax revenues. The tax is designed to be retroactive and includes provisions for illiquid assets and deferred payments to mitigate these concerns. However, critics fear it could lead to future wealth taxes and make California a risky place for billionaires, potentially shifting innovation to other states. The debate is framed as a high-stakes bet on billionaire psychology and their willingness to relocate.

Note

marketing on both sides of this movement tend to evoke emotions about what would happen that doesnt convey the thoughtful nuances behind the actual proposal itself.

the big beautiful bill has put too much pressure on city and state budgets and isncalling into question how we can cultivate a healthy and sustainable society.

a world where everyone is working low wage jobs, without mobility, irrespective of their age or capacity, is not a solution. it is a problem on its own.

a short term tax on the extremely wealthy is a reasonable suggestion. it isnt even a long term solution.

we could do something else. the advocates against this bill arent investing enough to propose an honest alternative. just voicing opposition seems to be their full throated defense.

both sides are right about some things and wrong about others.

but being right isn't what is at stake here.

Published

2026

Summary

The article discusses California's proposed one-off 5 percent wealth tax on its richest residents. Proponents, including economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, argue it's a fair way to address a $20 billion health-care budget shortfall, as billionaires pay very little in income taxes. Opponents, like Garry Tan and David Sacks, warn of significant capital flight, threatening the state's tech industry and long-term tax revenues. The tax is designed to be retroactive and includes provisions for illiquid assets and deferred payments to mitigate these concerns. However, critics fear it could lead to future wealth taxes and make California a risky place for billionaires, potentially shifting innovation to other states. The debate is framed as a high-stakes bet on billionaire psychology and their willingness to relocate.

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