Superforecasting

6/1/2016

What sets apart the winners from the losers in forecasting? Why do some experts have a talent for making accurate predictions while others fall short? Through over a decade of research, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock has discovered that foresight is often less about innate ability and more about the ability to learn from experience. In "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction", Tetlock and Dan Gardner provide an in-depth analysis of prediction, based on decades of research and the results of a government-funded forecasting competition called The Good Judgment Project. Tetlock and Gardner show that good forecasting is achievable by following key principles such as gathering diverse evidence, working in teams, thinking probabilistically, keeping score, and being willing to adjust course when necessary. Through engaging stories of forecasting success and failure, and interviews with high-level decision makers, "Superforecasting" offers a practical guide to improving our ability to predict the future in all areas of life, and is a must-read for anyone interested in decision-making, from entrepreneurs to policy makers.

philip e. tetlock ꞏ dan gardner ꞏ nonfiction ꞏ psychology ꞏ decision making ꞏ forecasting ꞏ prediction ꞏ expert predictions ꞏ good judgment project ꞏ foresight ꞏ probabilistic thinking ꞏ scorekeeping ꞏ learning ꞏ improvement ꞏ interviews ꞏ david petraeus ꞏ robert rubin ꞏ global events ꞏ business ꞏ finance ꞏ politics ꞏ international affairs